The upshot: annualised flat steel prices (HRC) will fall 2-3 percent on-year in fiscal 2024 after declining ~9 percent in the previous fiscal. End-consumer industries have switched to need-based procurement in anticipation of further price corrections. Meanwhile, primary thermo-mechanically treated (TMT) trade prices saw a steeper fall of Rs 2,800 and are currently trading at Rs 57,000–57,500.

Following a flurry of cheap imports, most large steel mills corrected list prices for both HRC and CRC by Rs 2,000-2,500 per tonne in early May against April 2023 prices. Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) trade prices fell by Rs 2,000 in mid-May 2023 from the peaks of the previous month to Rs 59,000–59,500 per tonne and Rs 63,000–63,500 per tonne, respectively, in the Mumbai market. Domestic steel prices, which have been on a rally since December 2022, are set to bend under the combined weight of a slowdown in global demand, influx of cheap imports from far-eastern Asia and Russia and cooling raw material prices.

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